Why Is Russia Toning Down Its Rhetoric And Restraining Its Military

Vladimir Putin (C) shakes hands with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu during a meeting at the Bocharov Ruchei state residence in Sochi, November 24, 2014. Alexei Druzhinin/RIA Novosti/Kremlin/Reuters

Pavel K. Baev, Brookings: Russia is showing uncharacteristic prudence—Why, and will it last?

With the NATO summit in Warsaw coming up in July, the rhetoric in many Western quarters is becoming shriller about the need to contain Russian aggression. There are good reasons for concern about Russia’s intentions and capabilities, as elaborated at the recent Lennart Meri conference in Tallinn. But in the last couple of months, Moscow has actually been quite prudent. This self-restraint is entirely uncharacteristic and is often accompanied by typically assertive language, but it shouldn’t be ignored and deserves a closer look.

What self-restraint?

There is no denying Russia’s propensity to—and even preference for—using military force. However, this tendency hasn’t been much on display this spring. The turning point was perhaps the agreement on the ceasefire in Syria, followed by President Vladimir Putin’s March 14 order to halve the grouping of the Russian Air Force at the Latakia airbase. Since then, Moscow has shown increasing inclination to cooperate with the United States and even suggested joint airstrikes; the offer was duly turned down, and Russian airstrikes against the Nusra Front have stopped. There were serious concerns about an assault on Aleppo by Bashar Assad’s forces, but Moscow has opted instead for PR offensives, like the classical music concert in the newly-liberated Palmyra.

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WNU Editor: The most important date on Russian President Putin's calendar is March 11, 2018 .... that is the date when Russians go to the polls to elect a President. Everything that he will be doing from now to then will be with an eye on that date .... and what he wants is to maintain the status quo and/or get what he wants in Ukraine and in the Middle East, to get rid of sanctions, and to pivot to Asia where the economic boom is still continuing and Russian resources are needed. There will be no adventures abroad (unless forced to), there will definitely be a toning down in the rhetoric, and the Russian economy will be the #1 priority.